Poll Vaulting the Brown/Warren U.S. Senate Race

The local dailies are – wait for it – presenting very different pictures of polling data in the runup to tomorrow’s actual voting in the U.S. Senate race between Scott Brown (R-I’m Nobody’s Senator But Yours) and Elizabeth Warren (D-I’m Nobody’s Senator Yet).

From the Sunday Boston Globe (boink! sorry, paywall):

Two new polls show Brown, Warren in tight race

A new poll released Sunday morning shows Elizabeth Warren leading Senator Scott Brown by four percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent. The live telephone poll of 535 voters was conducted between Oct. 26 and Nov. 1 by the Western New England University Polling Institute on behalf of the Springfield Republican and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It’s the seventh of eight recent public polls that show Warren with a lead of between two and seven percentage points.

It’s a whole nother world, however, in today’s Boston Herald:

UMass Lowell/Herald poll: Senate race deadlocked

The bruising Massachusetts Senate battle between Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren is deadlocked just hours before Election Day, with both the candidates and the voters suffering from a barrage of attack ads, a new UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll reveals.

The poll shows Brown holding a 49-48 percent advantage over Warren among likely voters, dispelling earlier polls and Democratic claims of a small Warren lead. The one-point lead is well within the poll’s 4.1 percent margin of error.

But wait! The Herald piece also provides some uncharacteristic context:

Brown held a four-point lead among likely voters in a UMass Lowell/Herald poll in mid-September, but the Harvard Law professor has closed that gap as more Democratic voters have moved to her side.

Helpful Joe Battenfeld sidebar:

Middle-class vote nearly split between candidates

Massachusetts voters are about evenly split on which U.S. Senate candidate will be a better champion of the middle class, even though Democrat Elizabeth Warren has made that her chief campaign message, a new UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll shows.

Warren has talked constantly about the “hammered” middle class for the past year but just 47 percent of registered voters believe she’ll best represent their interests, the poll shows.

A nearly equal number — 43 percent — say they believe Warren’s opponent, Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, would be better for middle-class voters.

In other words, pick ’em.


3 Responses to Poll Vaulting the Brown/Warren U.S. Senate Race

  1. According to Senator Brown (quoted in today’s Globe) the polls are likely wrong because people are afraid to say they’re voting for him out of fear of retribution from “a union boss.”

    Which probably sounds about right to the average Alabama Tea Party voter. You know, what with all our big, scary “union bosses” up here here in the “urban” places.

    Maybe when the election is over Brown can move to a right-to-work state and lobby for Walmart; he’s already tailoring his message for them.

  2. Curmudgeon says:

    I’m reminded that Marsha had a 5-point lead going into voting day!

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